Hello and welcome to another MCO Market Update on Bitcoin!
Let’s dive straight into the latest developments on the Bitcoin chart. As of now, Bitcoin remains in a rangebound phase. I covered this in more depth in the previous video, but today we’ll zoom in on the key support and resistance zones.
Current Market Structure
Bitcoin appears to be working on a wave 2 to the upside, although my preferred view remains more cautious. The yellow scenario — which suggests further downside — is still the leading interpretation.
At the moment, there’s no clear signal that the bulls are taking charge. Instead, the corrective bounce we’re seeing is constrained within a resistance area between $84,000 and $87,000. As long as the market stays below $87,000, any move higher should be viewed as part of a wave 2 bounce, following the earlier wave 1 decline. This corrective structure could soon give way to a third wave to the downside.
Should this scenario play out, Bitcoin could be heading toward the mid to low $70,000 region.
Key Pivot Level
The $87,000 level is absolutely critical. A break above $86,968 would shift the probabilities toward the white scenario, suggesting that a more substantial low might have already formed on April 3rd, with the market then moving up in a C-wave towards $100,000.
For now, we remain in a wait-and-see mode, as movements to the upside have been corrective and the pressure remains downward. The five-wave decline we’ve observed supports the yellow (bearish) scenario.
Short-Term Expectations
We may still see a final bounce in wave C of 2, potentially targeting the $85,724 to $86,968 zone. However, a more direct move to the downside is also possible and would fit well within the yellow scenario.
It’s important to recognize that this is mostly short-term market noise. The critical takeaway is understanding where the probabilities shift from bearish to bullish: $86,968 is the key level to watch.
Support Levels
Support could be found at previous swing lows from earlier this week, specifically around the $81,400 to $81,200 range. If Bitcoin decisively breaks below these lows, it would likely confirm that the third wave to the downside is unfolding.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, a break below the low of wave 1 (formed on Thursday) is a strong signal that a third wave down is in progress.
Broader Market Context
While the NASDAQ and S&P 500 might still have another 4-5 wave pattern to complete, Bitcoin would need to catch up. However, keep in mind that Bitcoin doesn’t always move in sync with traditional markets. It’s a relationship to watch, but not something to rely on fully.
Summary
- Bitcoin remains rangebound with corrective bounces constrained below $87,000.
- Key resistance: $86,968 — a breakout above this level could shift momentum to the upside.
- Key support: $81,200–$81,400 — a break below confirms more downside ahead.
- Short-term movements are largely noise; the focus should remain on key pivot levels.
- Saturday trading is usually quiet, so significant moves might be limited in the short term.
Stay tuned for further updates as the situation develops!