Welcome to today’s Bitcoin update! Let’s dive into what’s happening on the charts and where Bitcoin could be headed next.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently showing signs that a potential fifth wave up could be starting from the 50% Fibonacci retracement region around $75,340. Interestingly, just as Bitcoin hit this key Fibonacci support, a series of news events hit the market — almost like clockwork. As always, we had this level marked out weeks in advance.
But is a significant low already in place?
That’s the key question. Right now, there’s no full confirmation yet. We’ll need to zoom into the smaller timeframes to see if the structure supports a major reversal.
Context is everything. Many traders get trapped watching only the 5-minute charts, but without understanding the bigger picture, most of the short-term volatility can look like noise. That’s why the daily chart is crucial — it keeps us grounded amidst the chaos.
What Happens If a Low is In?
If Bitcoin has indeed formed a meaningful low, the next resistance area to watch is already on our radar. This resistance zone is intentionally broad because B-waves (which we could be entering) are very tricky. They can overshoot dramatically, possibly even extending up to $126K — and still just be a corrective B-wave!
B-waves are chameleons by nature, and while they can offer opportunities, they can also be difficult to track in real-time. Even so, the current price range offers an interesting reward-to-risk setup for those who are either lightly exposed or looking to accumulate.
Reminder: This is not financial advice. Always make decisions based on your own risk profile and portfolio needs.
Overall, from an Elliott Wave perspective, this is an objectively interesting region for potential accumulation. Even if we are near the end of the bull market, the next rally will give us critical clues about the bigger picture.
Smaller Timeframe Analysis
Zooming in, the smaller timeframes tell an intriguing story:
- Yesterday, we were tracking an A-wave up, followed by a B-wave pullback, and were expecting a C-wave rally.
- Bitcoin surpassed the Monday high, as anticipated. We had set the first C-wave target around $81.4K, and that target was hit.
- We’ve now briefly broken above resistance, and currently, Bitcoin is retesting the Monday high.
Looking at the micro-structure, one more high would be ideal to fully complete the ABC pattern to the upside. However, because of the strength and height of this move, it’s possible that Bitcoin already bottomed — either last Monday or Wednesday.
There are two main scenarios from here:
- Scenario 1:
The low is already in, and this is just the first leg (A-wave) of a larger structure that could send Bitcoin towards the mid-$90K region after a brief B-wave pullback. - Scenario 2:
We get another dip before the final low is confirmed.
We have micro support at $79,518. As long as Bitcoin stays above it, another push higher looks likely. However, if it breaks below, it would increase the probability that a short-term top is already in.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a crucial decision point.
Short-term, the bias remains slightly higher against $79,518 to complete the current structure. Once we get confirmation of a top, we’ll be watching for a pullback and possible setups for the next rally higher.